Analysis – Women’s Rights Network
What actually is the risk posed by transwomen?
LEELA VENTURA – 10 January 2023 – Women’s Rights Network
The following calculations are based on figures taken from the 2021 Census and Ministry of Justice (MoJ) statistics.
Figures released from the UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) suggest that in England and Wales there are 47,572 people who identify as transwomen.
According to MoJ statistics the number of transwomen in the prison estate for committing a sexual offence is 76.
This means the odds of a transwomen committing and being convicted of a sexual offence is 76/47,596.
The ONS data also indicates that there are 29,177,340 men in England and Wales and MoJ figures show that there are 13,234 men in the prison estate for committing a sexual offence.
The odds of committing and being convicted of a sexual offence in the population of men is 13,234/29,164,106
We can compare the risk between transwomen and men of committing and being convicted of a sexual offence by calculating the odds ratio.
The odds ratio is: 3.51 (95% CI: 2.80-4.41)
This means compared to men, transwomen are 251% more likely to commit and be convicted of a sexual offence.
We can also calculate this statistic to compare the risk of offending and being convicted for trans women and women.
ONS data indicate that in 2021 there were 30,420,202 women living in England and Wales and MoJ data indicate there were 125 women sexual offenders in prison.
Thus, the odds of sexual offending in the population of women is 125/30,406,968.
Comparing transwomen to women we get an odds ratio of 388.42 (95% CI: 292.03;516.63).